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$('#layerC69A6AE327B1E20ED42BD34986B66CBE').triggerHandler('layer_ready');</script><div id='layerE9D0600F95D3BD5F5244FDC00C4B385B' type='title' class='cstlayer' style='left: 394px; top: 337px; position: absolute; z-index: 113; width: 150px; height: 52px; ' mid="" deg='0'><div class="wp-title_content" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; border-color: transparent; border-width: 0px; height: 52px; width: 150px; display: block; border-style: solid; background-color: rgb(67, 67, 67);word-wrap:break-word;"><div align="center"><span style="font-family: Microsoft YaHei; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 18px; line-height: 260%;"><strong>政策資訊</strong></span></div></div> <script type="text/javascript"> $(function(){ $('.wp-title_content').each(function(){ if($(this).find('div').attr('align')=='justify'){ $(this).find('div').css({'text-justify':'inter-ideograph','text-align':'justify'}); } }) }) </script> </div><script> 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window.open(url,"","height=600,width=800,top=100,left=100,screenX=100,screenY=100,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes"); }); })(); </script> </div> </div> <div class="artview_intro" style="display:none;"> </div> <div class="artview_content" style="display:block;font-family:Microsoft YaHei;font-size:12px;color:#5A5A5A;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:none;"> <div class="artview_detail" setsid="article36"> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 第一批私募歷經市場牛熊轉換，承載著眾多市場“老人”的期盼，也確實上演了一幕幕的造富神話。最為值得惋惜的是，部分私募曾經風光一時，離夢想近在咫尺，卻最終與之失之交臂。<br /> </span><br /> <div style="text-align: center;"> <div style="text-align: left;"> <strong style="font-size: 16px;"> 10家私募難守昔日輝煌<br /> <br /> </strong><strong style="text-align: center; font-size: 16px;"></strong> </div> </div> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 梳理第一批陽光私募成立至今的表現來看，其中不少私募曾經盛極一時，而后卻跌落神壇，再無往昔風光，典型的如成立于2007年4月的民森投資。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 由于其董事長蔡明曾有過出色的投資業績，民森投資在成立之初便備受關注，公司早期的發展也是不負眾望，在2015年上半年便成功躋身百億私募之列。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 只是，好景不長，伴隨著2015年股市暴跌的開始，民森投資旗下產品凈值遭遇了大幅回撤，公司2015年成立的部分產品更是損失慘重，當年4-5月成立的諾亞一、二、三號產品，截至次年6月15日，累計虧損率均超過了四成，隨后凈值停止更新。截至2015年年底，民森投資已經黯然失守百億規模，并且至今未能重新上榜。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 宏信證券FOF負責人林紹豐指出，私募投資者追求的都是絕對收益，一旦私募旗下產品凈值大幅下滑，除了由此導致的規模收縮之外，投資者的集中贖回往往也會隨之而至，進一步加劇該私募管理規模的銳減，而且其后續的募資也會受到很大影響，因此很多經歷過產品業績大幅回撤的私募都很難重新做大。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 與民森投資類似的還有由原長盛基金的基金經理田榮華于2007年6月創辦的武當投資，2015年遭遇重挫后，公司發展陷入停滯。明星基金經理石波、常昊創立的尚雅投資也是2015年后風光不再。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 還有部分私募曾力壓群雄奪得年度陽光私募冠軍，但也沒能守住高光時刻。<br /> </span><span style="font-size: 16px;">2008年，在大熊市的背景下，金中和投資以23.97%的收益率成為該年度私募冠軍。然而，由于兩位核心基金經理投資理念差異較大，2010年，鄧繼軍選擇單飛，成立泰達鼎晟，曾軍則繼續留在金中和。分道揚鑣后的二人一直表現平平，金中和投資也再無特別突出的業績。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 曾經的私募從業者王彬（化名）透露，在私募圈里，創始人“分手”的情況并不少見，最初的時候大家都是想做點事走在一起的，而一旦公司發展起來就會面臨理念不合、利益分配不均等諸多問題，很容易出現共患難但難共富貴的局面。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 2010年的私募冠軍世通資產也沒能逃過衰敗的結局。奪冠后公司規模急劇擴張，而基金經理常士杉卻尚未做好充分準備，于是隨后兩年里，公司產品業績一路下滑，凈值最低跌至0.5元。 2013年6月，世通資產正式更名為康莊資產，開始謀求轉型發展，業務拓展到金融培訓、互聯網金融等相關領域。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 某智庫研究員龍女士指出，很多私募在成名之后，都會吸引大量資金的流入，而隨著管理規模的快速滾大，往往會超出其原有策略的資金容量，或者導致一些靈活性的投資策略不再適用，公司的投研力量無法及時跟上，就很容易出現產品后續業績無以為繼的情況，公司發展也會隨之陷入困局。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 2009年陽光私募冠軍羅偉廣的新價值投資也是如此，在奪冠的同時，新價值投資的管理規模在一年內擴大了5倍。但是，由于其管理團隊和風格轉化跟不上管理規模擴張的速度，之后，公司產品業績出現大幅下滑，遭到投資者的拋棄。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 在第一批成立的私募中還有一部分曾經輝煌一時，最終卻失手于博弈，典型的如期貨大佬葛衛東掌管的混沌投資以及崔軍的創贏投資等。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 葛衛東自2000年開始做期貨，兩次爆倉；2004年之后迅速崛起，硬生生將100萬資產做成了150億，六年來年均收益率120%，其創辦的混沌投資也在2014年底便成功躋身百億私募之列。不過公司旗下不少產品在2015年遭遇重挫，同年年底便黯然失守百億規模，至今未能重新回歸百億私募。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 今年3月份，混沌天成期貨股份有限公司（下稱混沌天成）董事會會議審議的一份議案顯示，葛衛東轉讓了旗下私募證券管理人混沌道然資產管理有限公司（下稱混沌道然）的控制權。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 崔軍執掌的寶銀創贏旗下產品“最具巴菲特潛力杠桿對沖基金1期”收益率一度高達2755.24%。只不過，在2018年，該公司旗下多只產品凈值遭遇滑鐵盧，其中6只產品更新的最新凈值都已經不足0.2元。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 有分析指出，雖然崔軍一直宣稱以巴菲特理念為指導，不過，從其以往的投資表現來看，崔軍的做法更傾向“殼資源”炒作，在二級市場上買入后，提出改選董事會等議案，吸引中小投資者關注，炒熱之后在適當時機減持獲利出局，這本身與“價值投資”并不一致。而且這種投資策略的盈利能力缺乏持久性同時還伴隨著較高的風險。</span><br /> <span><br /> <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="http://prof764c3.pic44.websiteonline.cn/upload/xmil.jpg" width="580" height="128" alt="" /> </div> </span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 廣金美好總經理羅山指出，A股市場風格是不斷輪動的，在任何一個比較有限的時間段內，某些私募業績排名很靠前，那么它的配置通常都是非常極端的，同時在下一個時間段內市場的風格往往會變，這些人的業績就大概率變差。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 華軟新動力資產基金經理仇曉慧也認為，第一批私募大多采用主觀多頭策略，曾經取得輝煌業績或在很大程度上是由于其投資策略恰好適合當時的市場風格，而這種“能力”通常是不可持續的。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 而這，也正是部分曾經輝煌一時的明星私募最終走下神壇的原因所在。<br /> </span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong> 7家私募居于百億之列<br /> </strong></span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 當然，第一批陽光私募中也不乏一些老牌的“實力派”，這些私募后續幾乎都發展得很好。其中，重陽投資早在2011年成為國內首家百億級私募機構，景林資產目前管理規模已近千億，淡水泉投資、星石投資等也早在2015年上半年便成功進軍百億私募之列，并且至今依然榜上有名。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 在2014年底晉升為百億私募的朱雀投資，此后各個統計周期內也是從未掉榜。并且公司還在去年9月拿下公募牌照，成功實現了“私轉公”。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 另外，明達投資、涌峰投資、源樂晟資產等目前也均已成長至百億私募。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 值得注意的是，據格上理財數據統計，截至去年年底，證券類百億私募一共只有27家，其中股票型的14家，而由第一批私募發展起來的占據了其中7個名額，體現出了明顯的先發優勢。</span><span><br /> </span><span style="font-size: 16px;"> 宏信證券高級副總裁余洋指出，敢于在行業早期就選擇奔私的基金經理大多數都有著豐富的投資經驗和優秀的過往業績，這些實力派主導的私募更容易在股市牛熊變換中存活下來并發展壯大。而且，當時私募行業的競爭也沒那么激烈，對標的都是公募等產品，只要業績上稍微具有優勢便能吸引資金的流入。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 而隨著私募業的發展，行業內的頭部效應愈發明顯，這些老牌私募規模大、盈利能力強，也就有更多的實力去擴充投研力量、開辟渠道資源，吸納更多的資金，從而加速自身的發展。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 朝陽永續FOF經理張姚杰指出，頭部效應明顯是部分投顧通過多年的積累和一直不停歇的優化升級公司配套換來的結果。這個過程中，實力換來了粉絲級的客戶，在多年理念傳遞的過程中碰到了價值大年或者量化大年，從而一舉形成頭部效應，確實是越大越強，規模大的幾家無一例外愿意在投研、人才、管理、配套設備上花錢。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 除了已經成長為百億私募的之外，同屬于第一批私募中的六禾投資、證大投資、智德、中歐瑞博、匯利、世誠、東方港灣等也都發展得不錯，目前管理規模均居于行業前列。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 縱然每家公司成功的秘訣各有不同，但是從這些如今發展得不錯的老牌私募身上，也還是可以看到不少共同之處。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 王彬表示，觀察這些能夠在十多年的激烈競爭中做強做大的私募，擁有長期穩健的投資策略占據首要位置。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 可以發現，第一批私募中如今發展成為行業領頭羊的私募多數都屬于價值派并且持續堅守自己的策略。究其原因，每種投資策略往往都有其資金容量上的限制，當管理規?？焖贁U張之后，一些靈活性的策略通常不再適用。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 上海一位奉行價值投資的百億私募核心人員杜先生接受界面新聞采訪時指出，其實價值投資這個邏輯可以支撐的體量非常大，遠遠大于公司現在實際的體量，因此，即使公司的投資邏輯各方面都不變，發展的空間也依然很大。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 此外，善于抓住機遇，另辟蹊徑進行品牌建設也不失為一種有效的方式，最為典型的如東方港灣的但斌。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 東方港灣早期的業績表現并不樂觀，最初的幾年里公司發展也很緩慢，直到2010年底才推出了第二只產品“中融信托-融新263號東方港灣1期”。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 在2015年的大牛市中，但斌憑借自己在自媒體領域強大的影響力，有效地把握住了機遇，借此實現了管理規模的第一輪大擴張。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 在2017年的白馬行情中，東方港灣旗下產品因重倉貴州茅臺等白馬股業績表現突出，公司再度趁熱打鐵，迎來新一輪產品發行高峰，自2017年9月以來新產品數量多達44只，占其已發行產品總數的54.32%。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 很多人認為，但斌的成功更多源自其對價值投資的堅守，特別是其長期以來對貴州茅臺的堅定看好。但據知情人士透露，但斌曾在貴州茅臺160元/股左右的時候認為已經高估并賣出，隨后貴州茅臺股價卻繼續上揚，于是很多人質疑為何貴州茅臺漲了其凈值卻不漲，無奈之下，但斌在220元/股附近又重新買入了貴州茅臺。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 接受界面新聞采訪的多位業內人士均認為，但斌成功的背后，其在品牌傳播方面的努力所貢獻的力量不容忽視。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 另外，朝陽永續FOF經理張姚杰指出，第一批成功的大私募里共有的一些特質還包括都有雷打不動的核心人物、領袖；都有各自非常明確的價值偏好或者說風格偏好并堅持至今；都在初期有一幫得力的助手并且依然輔助至今；都在不斷加強內部的投研梯隊，持續培養人才，重視人才的迭代等。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;">不論各自的成功之道有何差異，目前發展較好的這些老牌私募已然成為私募行業的中流砥柱，也成為了私募頭部效應的最大受益者。</span><br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;"> 只不過，股市風云變幻，2018年這些大私募也紛紛遭遇業績回撤。由此來看，這些私募領域“拓荒者們”未來的發展如何值得持續關注。</span><br /> <span><br /> </span><br /> <div style="text-align: right;"> <span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">——來源：界面新聞</span> </div> <span style="font-size:16px;"> <div style="text-align: right;"> <span 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